FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY IN THE FINANCIAL STABILITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF SMALL ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The current conditions of the development of the economy of Ukraine, accompanied by transformational processes, martial law, macroeconomic instability and crisis phenomena on world markets, create additional risks for the functioning of enterprises of various industries. One of the main threats to business is the loss of solvency and bankruptcy, which have negative consequences not only for the enterprise itself, but also for its employees, partners, creditors and the economy of the state in general. Therefore, the issue of predicting the probability of bankruptcy becomes of primary importance both in the scientific field and in the practical activities of enterprises, financial institutions, auditing and consulting companies. Financial stability is a key factor in the survival and development of the enterprise. Its effective management and timely forecasting of bankruptcy make it possible to minimize risks, ensure the stability and investment attractiveness of the enterprise. At the same time, the latest trends, which include the use of machine learning, statistical analysis of large data sets, as well as financial analytics tools, create an opportunity to increase the accuracy of forecasts and adapt them to national conditions. Forecasting the probability of bankruptcy enables enterprises to detect early signs of financial problems, develop rehabilitation strategies and avoid liquidation procedures. For creditors and investors, it acts as a tool for risk management and making informed decisions about cooperation. For the state and society, effective bankruptcy forecasting methods mean the stability of tax revenues, the preservation of jobs and the prevention of social tension. Thus, the relevance of the study is determined by the need to create complex approaches to assessing and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises, which would take into account both classical financial ratios and modern tools of economic analysis.