ANALYSIS OF DESTABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE OF ENTERPRISES AND ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the increased turbulence of the external environment of the functioning of enterprises in conditions of military and economic instability. The purpose of the article is to develop theoretical and methodological principles for the integration of external destabilizing factors into the process of assessing the economic resilience of enterprises. The object of the study is external shock factors that affect the economic security and adaptability of domestic enterprises. The work uses methods of theoretical generalization, comparative analysis, systematization and classification, economic and statistical analysis, methods of average values, standard deviation and coefficient of variation, data visualization method, method of minimax normalization of indicators and index method. The article substantiates that in conditions of war economy and long-term macroeconomic instability, the economic resilience of enterprises becomes critical as the ability to maintain functional integrity, adapt to destabilizing changes, and ensure the continuity of economic activity in conditions of high uncertainty. Conceptual differences between the economic security of an enterprise and the economic resilience of an enterprise are identified, where economic security characterizes the state of security of the system, and economic resilience is the ability of the system to adapt, recover and transform under the influence of external shocks. Within the framework of the study, destabilizing factors of the external environment are systematized into ten key blocks: macroeconomic turbulence, financial and credit destabilization, market instability, logistical and infrastructure disruptions, energy risks, institutional and regulatory instability, geopolitical and military destruction, social and labor destabilization, technological and digital risks and environmental and climatic factors. A system of statistical indicators has been formed for each block. Based on economic and statistical analysis, an assessment of the volatility of destabilizing indicators was carried out using average values, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. It was found that most of the studied indicators are characterized by a high or very high level of volatility, especially after 2022. For a comprehensive assessment of the intensity of external shocks, an integral index of external destabilizing influence (DE) was proposed, built on the basis of normalized stimulants and destimulators using minimax transformation. The results of calculating the integral index DE showed that the most favorable for the functioning of enterprises were 2018–2020, while the lowest index value was recorded in 2022 due to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 2023–2025, a partial recovery is observed, however, the level of external instability remains significantly higher compared to the pre-war period. The practical significance of the study lies in the formation of an integral index of external destabilizing influence for a comprehensive assessment of the intensity of external shocks and the level of economic resilience of enterprises.