DEVELOPMENT OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC FOR RISK ESTIMATION IN THE ACTIVITY OF A TESTING LABORATORY

Abstract

The article discusses the issue of risk assessment in the operations of a testing laboratory for making management decisions. It is highlighted that existing models of managing testing laboratory activities and risk analysis methods limit the accuracy of risk determination due to the lack of consideration for the linguistic component of uncertainty, and only allow for the assessment of the stochastic component of information uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to improve the decision-making mechanism based on risk analysis through the application of fuzzy logic in the testing laboratory. To achieve this objective, the following tasks are set: to analyze existing scientific and methodological approaches for making management decisions in a testing laboratory; to develop a mathematical model for risk determination in the operations of a testing laboratory using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic. The theory of fuzzy logic is briefly described as a method that enhances the reliability of risk analysis by accounting for linguistic factors. It is noted that the reliability of risk analysis for timely management decisions, aimed at limiting the impact of negative factors on the operations of testing laboratories, can be increased through the use of fuzzy models. Considering the proven ability of fuzzy models to describe the linguistic component of uncertainty, the use of fuzzy models will lead to improved reliability of risk analysis results. A mathematical model for risk determination in the operations of a testing laboratory using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic is proposed. Further research will be directed towards experimental verification of the proposed model's reliability.