APPLICATION OF FORECASTING TOOLS FOR FINANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTICS ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article examines the topical issues of forecasting the financial performance of the logistics enterprise - the national postal operator of Ukraine JSC "Ukrposhta". An analysis of planning activities of logistics enterprises, their tools and methods was carried out. The analysis of the practical aspects of JSC "Ukrposhta" allowed us to offer forecasting indicators using time series as a financial planning support tool for the company. In advance, the authors developed a step-by-step research plan, which, due to formalization, makes it possible for its universal application at enterprises of different sizes and forms of ownership. As a database for modelling, the main indicators of the company's financial statements for the last 10 years, from 2012 to 2021, have been selected. The values of several static and dynamic indicators of property status and economic activity of the enterprise under study were analyzed and predicted. As a result of the research, for the most accurate description of the actual data of the enterprise, models with the highest level of quality were selected, most of which have the type of polynomial model of the 2nd degree. The use of the polynomial model of the 5th degree, in particular, to determine trends in the formation of property, non-current assets, equity, long-term liabilities and net profit, had a low quality of construction (coefficient of determination), which did not allow making forecasts based on them. According to the simulation results, the models with the highest quality description of the modification of the trend component were selected, namely, the current assets model, the cost model, the gross profit model, and the net income model. The article presents a graphical interpretation of the obtained indicators and trend lines. Based on the results of forecasting the main indicators of financing the development of JSC "Ukrposhta" activity, an increase in the forecast values of the selected indicators in 2022 is noted.