FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HOUSING FUND OF THE CITY OF KYIV IN THE CONDITIONS OF DEEPENING TRENDS OF URBANIZATION

Abstract

The article considers the dynamics of changes in the state and provides a forecast of the development of the housing stock of the city of Kyiv in the deepening trend of urbanization. The aim of the article is to analyze the changes in the development of the housing stock of the city of Kyiv under the influence of urbanization trends and to make a forecast of further possible changes in the development of the housing stock of the city of Kyiv. The dynamics of changes in the state of the housing stock of Kyiv for the period 2016-2020 is analyzed. It is concluded that the total area of commissioned residential buildings in Kyiv for the period 2016-2020 decreased by 78.64%, a significant decline occurred in 2020. - by 74.39% compared to 2019; the number of built apartments in the city of Kyiv for the period 2016-2020 decreased by 82.26%, for the period 2019 - 2020 decreased by 79.19%. It is determined that expenditures from the budget of the city of Kyiv for the maintenance of housing and communal services for the period 2016-2020 increased 9.96 times. It is substantiated that the current problems of the housing stock of the city of Kyiv and housing and communal infrastructure are related to issues that have not found a proper solution for many years. This includes the need to overhaul many residential buildings and the significant deterioration of communication networks and elevators, which also need to be replaced or overhauled, and the arrangement of the adjacent territory. Insufficient solution of legal issues in Ukraine, ownership of land plots under apartment buildings and adjacent territories in the legislative practice of the country slows down the pace of equipment of adjacent territories of residential buildings. It is concluded that the activities of "construction" and "water supply, sewerage, waste management" are not attractive to investors. It is determined that the development of the housing stock and the conditions of deepening urbanization trends are influenced by two main factors: the growth rate of the permanent population and the rate of commissioning of the housing stock. The forecast model of the volumes of commissioning of the total area of residential buildings in Ukraine with the help of the statistical analysis program Statgraphics XVIII Centurion is built.