CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF RISK BALANCE (CHANCE AND DANGERS) OF STAKEHOLDERS IN WIND POWER PROJECTS

Abstract

Global climate change, the problems of the consequences of accidents at nuclear power plants, rising energy prices, rising energy requirements necessitate the adjustment of the energy policy of many developed countries towards the development of alternative energy sources, in particular the use of wind energy. The European Commission has classified wind power as one of the priority areas for the development of power generation  in the world. According to the International Energy Agency’s forecast, by 2040, the share of wind in global electricity generation will increase to 40%, and wind power stations will become the cheapest way of generation in most countries of the world. For the implementation of forecasts, proper and skillful management is necessary, which takes into account the specific features of wind power projects, the opportunities and threats of their stakeholders, and directed one to improve the effectiveness of such projects. The analysis of the work of domestic and foreign scientists and researchers in the field of stakeholder management in wind power projects was carried out, and it was revealed that this field is poorly explored, and existing developments are incomplete and relate to most alternative energy in general, therefore, they need to be specified and clarified. Using the analogy method and the Yin-Yang model, a conceptual model for balancing the risks (opportunities and threats) of stakeholders in wind energy projects is developed. This model consists in the fact that in order to ensure effective stakeholder management in wind power projects, it is necessary to balance their risks: increase the opportunities for positive impact of participants and reduce the opportunity of threats, while maintaining the stable state of the system, within the three categories that correspond to the "magic" triangle of project management goals: duration, cost, quality that is possible by combining techniques of opportunity management (chance management) and threats (risk management). The possible states of the system of interaction between the opportunities and threats of stakeholders in wind power projects are mathematically described, according to the probable values of risk balances for each stakeholder. It is determined that, according to the states of the system of interaction of opportunities and threats of stakeholders in wind power projects, all stakeholders can be divided into three groups: threatening, harmonized and chance.