CURRENCY RISKS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN MODERN CONDITIONS

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of foreign exchange risks of commercial banks in Ukraine under modern economic conditions. The paper examines the main aspects that determine the impact of currency fluctuations on the stability of the banking sector, as well as the factors that shape the level of risk associated with foreign exchange operations. The nature and essence of currency risks, their classification, and the peculiarities of their manifestation in the activities of banking institutions are analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the study of macroeconomic and internal banking factors that intensify the influence of currency risks on the financial results of banks.

Special emphasis is placed on the analysis of the dynamics of the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar and the euro for 2020–2025, which made it possible to identify a steady trend toward the devaluation of the national currency. It is shown that the depreciation of the hryvnia increases the cost of banks’ foreign currency liabilities and creates additional risks of asset revaluation. Based on statistical data of systemically important Ukrainian banks, differences in the levels of currency exposure, liquidity, and financial stability were identified. This allowed the detection of imbalances in the structure of currency positions and the varying degrees of banks’ sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations.

The article emphasizes the importance of forming an effective system for managing foreign exchange risks, which should be based on continuous monitoring of the currency market, the application of analytical risk assessment methods, and the improvement of exchange rate forecasting quality. It is noted that under the conditions of wartime instability, rising inflationary pressures, and global financial fluctuations, state regulation of the currency market and the enhancement of internal banking control mechanisms over foreign exchange operations become especially important. The need for the development of preventive hedging strategies, diversification of foreign currency assets, and strengthening the resilience of banks to external shocks is highlighted.

The implementation of these approaches will contribute to reducing the negative impact of currency risks, increasing the competitiveness of banking institutions, and ensuring the long-term financial stability of Ukraine’s banking sector amid uncertainty and structural economic transformations.